Blueberry Man and the No Fly Zone

Reader Contribution by Cam Mather
Published on December 7, 2011

By Cam Mather

My friend Steven Moore asked me to speak
to several of his sustainability classes at Queen’s University last
week. He asked for my “Thriving During Challenging Times” talk. When we
were discussing what I should cover in my talk, he told me that his
students were already aware of the converging challenges of peak oil,
climate change, the economic collapse, crumbling infrastructure, an
aging population, blah blah blah. Wow, fun class! Sign me up! I asked
him if he provides Prozac for the students as they leave his classroom
each week.

So I edited down my usual thriving workshop since I
assumed that most of the students in these classes don’t own houses and
so aren’t likely to put in a geothermal heating and cooling system, and
woodstove for backup etc.

As I suspected, the students were kind
of dazed and confused after my talk and in the morning class there
weren’t a lot of questions or comments. When I suggested that the
students avoid flying and own some precious metals and switch to a
plant-based diet I expected to get a lot of push back. But there wasn’t
too much. I guess they are old hands at this stuff.

I asked some
questions to get a handle on where they’re coming from. I asked, “How
many of you think you’re going to have a higher standard of living than
your parents?” When I began asking this question to high school students
in the wealthy suburbs of Toronto 20 years ago, most of the students
raised their hands. Fewer of these university students indicated as
much, so I think perhaps reality is setting in. When I asked how they
would all be getting home for the upcoming holidays, about a third
indicated that they will be taking a bus, a third will take a train, and
the last third will be flying. So I asked “How many of you have been on
a plane in the last year?” and just about all of them raised their
hands.

I am not passing judgment. They are just functioning within
the reality of the economic framework in which they live. Flying is
cheap. Bizarrely cheap. So cheap that no airline seems to be able to
make money over the long haul as the recent bankruptcy of American
Airlines shows. It looks like they couldn’t handle the high costs of
fuel, so they filed for Chapter 11. Heaven forbid they’d pass higher
fuel costs on to their customers. That seems a foreign concept to them,
not in their business model. But the writing is on the wall. Air travel
is about to become the domain of the rich. A decade ago a barrel of oil
cost $20. Today it’s $100. So it’s 5 times more expensive. And the more I
learn about the potential for a steep drop off in the production of
crude oil in the next few years, along with the increasing competition
from developing economies for what’s left, air travel is about to change
radically.

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