Revisiting 1975's U.S. Forecast and Economic Recession

MOTHER EARTH NEWS financial forecast predicted by MOTHER in early 1975 of no meaningful or lasting upturn to the current recession appears to have come true, and Julian M. Snyder of International Moneyline seems to agree.

| September/October 1975

Economic recession

Financial forecast predicted by Mother in 1975 remains true today and is reprinted in that spirit.


The forecast/commentary to the right (written in mid-May) appeared — as you'll remember — in MOTHER EARTH NEWS NO. 34 (the July-August 1975 issue of this magazine). And, despite the stalwartly optimistic words on the economy now emanating from Washington, we see no good reason to change a single comma or period of that July-August report.

The Economic Recession of 1975

Nor are we alone with this feeling. Julian M. Snyder — in a July issue of his excellent economic newsletter, International Moneyline ($15.00 a month from International Moneyline, Westport, CT) — flatly predicted that there will be no meaningful or lasting upturn to mark the end of the current economic ecession (which is the worst we've experienced since the 1930's). And in the July 15 World Market Perspective ($96.00 annually from ERC Publishing Co., West Vancouver, B.C., Canada), J.F. Smith fine-tunes that thought even further. Smith—who, back in February of 1973, was one of the first economists (if not the first) to call today's worldwide financial mess an "inflationary depression" and has been predicting planetary economic turns with amazing accuracy ever since — says:

There will be a continuation of the pickup in business activity that has now begun. And there will be temporary euphoria. However ... any strong, sound business advance from current depressed levels will be aborted. It will run head-on into a brick wall of price increase.;

This "forecast", by the way, was already coming true before Smith published it ... and not just in the United States, as a news article from Costa Rica's July 11, 1975 Tico Times proves. Headlined "Inflation Turns 'Dream Project' Into Billion Dollar Nightmare", the story told how "uncontrolled inflation" had forced ALCOA to "regretfully withdraw" from the development of an integrated mining and processing project that would have made Costa Rica, the major aluminum producer in all of Latin America.

The abandonment of such projects, of course, is very good for the long-term interests of the planet. The trend, then, should be applauded by everyone who understands the for immediately switching all the countries of the world from their current "growth at any cost" methods of operation to steady-state economies. There's no other way to ensure that this generation's grandchildren and great-grandchildren will have a planet to live on.

Despite that silver lining on the far horizon, however, we're the ones who — during the next few years — must live under the monstrous, boiling, black thundercloud which is now forming as the hot economic air mass of the past collides with the financial cold front of the future.

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