A Plan for the Solar Revolution
(Page 6 of 8)
April/May 2009
By Denis Hayes
- There are far too many emissions sources to efficiently regulate.
- America periodically goes on a conservative, anti-regulatory backlash, whereas climate policy requires a multi-century commitment.
- It’s impossible to measure, let alone control, emissions of a colorless, odorless gas that immediately mixes with the atmosphere from billions of sources (including farms and forests) around the world.
- Creative traders will find myriad ways to game a system that has multiple sources and sinks.
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Another variation on carbon trading is a global cap-and-trade program that considers carbon emissions from all sources. While this type of plan is conceptually elegant, we lack the real-time knowledge, let alone the enforcement power, to make it function. For example, deforestation accounts for as much as 17 percent of annual carbon emissions worldwide. Almost any forest can be protected for less than the cost of sequestering carbon dioxide at a power plant, so power plant operators will seek to offset their emissions by buying forests. But forests are complex and varied, with vastly different rates of carbon uptake, and even “protected” forests suffer occasional forest fires. In addition, forests affect climate in many ways other than carbon storage; studies show that on balance, protected boreal forests in the arctic actually make the Earth warmer, not cooler. Even where forest protection is clearly desirable climatically, how do we assure the protection of a forest in Papua New Guinea forever?
That’s why I’m convinced that the best course is to require carbon permits where carbon fuels enter the economy and use other instruments to safeguard forests and farms. Under a permit system, it will be illegal to sell a unit of any fossil fuel in the United States unless the seller possesses a permit for the amount of carbon it contains. In setting the number of carbon fuel permits issued — and thus determining how much coal, oil and gas can enter the economy — the government would be establishing an absolute, easily enforced cap on emissions. Such a system is part of the American Solar Energy Society’s policy recommendations for the 111th Congress.
By gradually reducing the number of permits auctioned each year, the government can guarantee that its carbon emissions targets are met: no fuel, no emissions. Companies that use carbon-based fuels will know exactly how much less carbon fuel will be available five years and 10 years from now, and they can adjust their investments and manufacturing processes accordingly.
It’s critical that all carbon permits be auctioned — not given away. In Europe, emissions permits were given away to large carbon users to ease their transition to the new trading regime. This gave windfalls to the worst polluters, penalized companies that already had invested in efficient new factories and renewable energy, and helped guarantee that Europe would miss its Kyoto targets. In contrast, auctioning 100 percent of all carbon permits would be fair and transparent. It benefits firms that have voluntarily reduced their carbon footprints and thus need less fuel. It eliminates backroom special-interest pleadings by recalcitrant firms.
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