Simpler Solar Power
(Page 8 of 8)
June/July 2005
By Doug Livingston and Scott Hollis
50-year Return on Investment (ROI)
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The main unanswered question in any investment analysis of solar power is how much the cost of grid electricity will increase in the future. Here are four scenarios that assume electricity costs will increase at different rates, from 5 percent to 20 percent per year. No one knows how fast electric rates will climb in response to the declining supply of fossil fuels and increasing environmental controls, but it’s worth noting that the average cost of residential electricity increased 8.8 percent per year in California from 2000 to 2002.
Assumptions for Mark and Kristin Sullivan’s house in Capitola, Calif.:
• Initial expense of $6,710 (after incentives)
• System output of 4.7 kWh/day with a decline in efficiency of 0.5 percent per year
• Initial electricity rate of 11.4 cents/kWh
If electricity cost increases at 5 percent annually, their ROI will be 7.5 percent.
If electricity cost increases at 8 percent annually, their ROI will be 25 percent.
If electricity cost increases at 10 percent annually, their ROI will be 53 percent.
If electricity cost increases at 20 percent annually, their ROI will be 2,130 percent.
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