PROBABLE CONSEQUENCES OF DEFAULT

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[2] In the second place, there is absolutely nothing in the wings now to indicate any grounds for a gold standard in the world.

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The United States is way too short of gold to impose a gold standard on the world. And the only way a gold standard will be imposed on the world is through a mighty economic power making absolute declarations of what will be money and what money will be worth. The U.S. long ago slipped from that position of power. No other country is in any position to even think of introducing such kind of money either by itself or in conjunction with others.

The result will be that the price of gold will have no justification for going up or even staying where it is while other prices are going down.

Gold is about 11 times its 1967 price, while other commodities are about three times. There is only one set of circumstances under which gold could make a significant rise. That is wild inflation-which, we have just seen, is not about to happen. As an alternative then, gold ought to be priced near where the average commodity is. That would be between three and four times its official price and certainly no more than five or six times. It would look to me as though $250 would be a maximum ceiling on gold. Either gold will be down around that figure, or it will be up well over the $1,000 mark.

People will not be buying gold when they need bread.

Countries will not be buying gold until it is part of the world monetary standard.

Commodities like silver and platinum will go down along with other commodities, but they will not fall proportionately with gold. Later on, because of their worldwide scarcity and their worldwide strategic necessity, they will recover in price before other commodities.

The stock market cannot possibly survive in such a climate, any more than a tomato can grow in Alaska in the winter. The stock market is due for a fall of several hundred points-riot an adjustment —a smash.

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