Population Where We Stand Now

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The World Bank forecasts are typical of those made by many such agencies in that they ignore the virtual certainty that death rates will rise in most nations in the not-too-distant future. In fact, increases have already been recorded, In Sri Lanka and parts of Bangladesh, for instance, the death rates rose in the late 1960's and early 1970's. They've also been increasing in some Latin American cities, and parts of Africa may be undergoing elevations in death rates now. Even the U.S.S.R.'s infant mortality rate has risen substantially in the last decade. And as increasing human numbers impose further stress on environmental systems, generally increasing death rates are, unfortunately, likely to take a stronger hand in controlling population growth.

The World Bank projections a so ignore ,.the possibility of population shrinkage as a result of low birth rates, even though a few nations such as West Germany have recently had declining populations, and China has made such a reduction a stated goal of its population policy.

It may still be possible to avoid catastrophe by moving the entire planet toward "negative population growth". Those who oppose achieving this objective through birth control are almost certainly promoting increases in the death rate. Remember that, r or later, growth on a finite planet must end ... the critical question is :"how"?

The World Development Report, 1980 was published for the World Bank by Oxford 'University Press. Information on death rate increase can be found in Signs of Change in Developing Country Mortality Trends: End of an Era? by Davidson R. Gwathkim Overseas Development Council DevelopPaper 30, February 1981.

Ehrlichs' work is supported in part by grant from the Koret Foundation of San Francisco.

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