economic outlook

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For one thing, some authorities estimate that, of all the oil supplies available to the Western world, less than one-fifth is produced in our own hemisphere. Per haps worse yet, fully two-thirds of the petroleum available to us is in the Middle East . . . an area that—recent events have shown—is unstable in its own right, and certainly must be considered a prime target for Soviet expansion.

A severe cutback in the roughly threequarters of the U.S. daily oil "diet" that's obtained from this volatile region would have drastic effects upon our ability even to move our food from the great monocropping agribusiness "breadbaskets" where it's produced—to the rest of the country. And, when you consider that it's been estimated that our major cities have on hand-in warehouses and on market shelves, etc.—no more than two weeks' worth of food, you'll see that the "good life" is built on very shaky ground indeed.

Of course, cutbacks in oil aren't the only threats to our food supplies. Urban areas, especially, are at the mercy of temporary shortages caused by truckers' strikes, supermarket employees' strikes, and similar disruptions at almost any point in the distribution system.

In addition, our ability to continue to produce the huge crops upon which much of our economy depends can't, itself, be taken for granted anymore. As you probably know, the drought that hit many areas of North America in 1980 is far from over. The Mississippi River is running at a level far below normal for this time of year, and some particularly pessimistic weather observers believe that—if we aren't blessed with a miraculous increase in precipitation in the coming months-river levels may actually become so low that barges will be unable to transport grain to our seaports . .. assuming, that is, that the same drought conditions leave us with a sufficient surplus to export! (Drought cycles are also said to recur at about 50-year intervals. And a dry spring, coupled with the continuing destruction of Midwestern topsoil by "modern" farming methods, could well result in a return of the horrible Dust Bowls of the 1930's.)

Then again, the very monetary system that allows us to purchase necessities is far from immune to threats. It seems likely that double-digit inflation will continue through 1981, while many economic analysts insist that a severe recession/de pression (and such downturns have historically paralleled drought cycles) must occur if our economy is to survive at all!

Furthermore, you may not be aware of the increasing unsteadiness among international banks that has resulted from the incredible debt—some $500 billion dollars of it—that has been run up by developing nations in the past decade. A number of the Third World countries have already had to stall on repayments, and "superborrowers" such as Brazil and Poland are now faced with financial problems that may hinder their ability to repay the banking institutions that have helped prop up those nations' shaky economies. In fact, in a recent Wall Street Journal report, Oxford economist Thomas Balogh was quoted as saying, "The Third World has overborrowed . .. and default might have a domino effect [that could lead to] a catastrophe."

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