Lester R. Brown: Author, Ecologist and Economist

Article Tools

Image Gallery

Print

E-mail

Comments

RSS

PLOWBOY: Eleven years! That's not much "lead time" for developing and deploying?new energy technologies.

BROWN: No, it's not. Whenever humanity has changed energy sources before, it's taken a long time, number one ... and number two, it's wrought tremendous social changes . The switch from wood to coal that began in the twelfth century, for example, culminated?hundreds of years later-in the Industrial Revolution, an enormous economic and social transformation. More recently-in just the past 100 years-we've shifted from coal to oil. As a result, we've seen the rise of what one might call the Auto-Industrial era. The question is when we shift from oil to whatever comes next ... how will that affect society?

PLOWBOY: Well, let's talk about that. What kinds of social changes do you foresee for the next ten years or so, as we come to the end of the petroleum era?

BROWN: I see a lot of changes in the transport sector, certainly. I mean, we've seen some changes already. Five years ago, the notion of reducing highway speed limits for energy conservation purposes-rather than for safety reasons, which is why we had speed limits to begin with?was really quite novel. Now we take it for granted.

Looking ahead, I can see a time?perhaps in the next three or four years when Congress will begin to consider legislating automatic transmissions out of existence, except for handicapped people. The notion of sacrificing 100% in fuel efficiency just to avoid having to move your hand or foot a few feet a day doesn't make much sense anymore.

Or take short-distance air travel. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see shorthop air travel-say from Washington, D.C. to New York-banned within a few years ... because it's very energy?inefficient compared to rapid rail. Likewise, I can see first-class air travel being phased out entirely. It ties up too much valuable cabin space.

Also, I can foresee increased reliance on the bicycle as a means of getting around. Already, some 30,000 people commute to work by bicycle here in Washington.

PLOWBOY: Amazing!

BROWN: Last July, I was in Indonesia giving a series of lectures. One of the lectures I gave was at a large university in central Java, Gadjah Mada University. I was describing some of the changes that we've just been talking about and how we're going to have to modify lifestyles and cut back on resource use, and so forth. And one of the faculty members took me to task. She said, "Are you trying to tell us that we can't go where you are in terms of development?" And I said, "Not quite. I'm not saying you can't go there. I am saying that I doubt if you can make it there. But even if you do, when you get there you may discover that we're no longer there." As evidence of what I was talking about, I cited the fact that in Jogjakarta-one of Java's largest cities-the ratio of automobiles to bicycles is climbing very rapidly ... whereas in Washington, D.C., the ratio of autos to bikes is declining. The number of cars coming into the city of Washington has not increased since 1974. The number of bicycles has.

RSS | Comments | E-mail | Print