Lester R. Brown: Author, Ecologist and Economist

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The world's biological systems provide all of our food ... and all the raw materials used in industry except for minerals and petrochemicals.

Of course, the energy problem is nothing new to most people. But I think there's been a tendency in this country to think of the energy dilemma as our grandchildren's?or perhaps our children's?problem ... something that's lurking just beyond the turn of the century. Well, it's not. It's our problem . the present generation's problem.

PLOWBOY: It's taking people a while?especially people in Washington to wake up to that fact.

BROWN: That's true. Many of our leaders are asleep at the wheel, so to speak. And yet, it's painfully obvious that the days of the oil era are numbered. It's a fact. In the U.S., oil production peaked back in 1970 and has been falling ever since. It is now declining and will continue to decline ... the recent influx of Alaskan oil won't change that. Of course, eight years ago when oil production peaked and started downward in the U.S.?it didn't pose a serious problem, because we were able to turn to foreign sources of petroleum to "make up the difference". ". As of last year, we were importing half our oil

PLOWBOY: Wait a minute ... you mean we're now importing 50% of all our oil?

BROWN: Yes. The latest set of figures isn't in yet, but we may have imported a bit more than half the oil we used in the last quarter of 1977.

PLOWBOY: That's something that a lot of "experts" predicted wouldn't happen until years from now ... isn't that right?

BROWN: It wasn't expected to happen until the mid-1980's. But you see, our failure to cut back on consumption?to conserve in a way that we should be doing?has led to a very rapid growth in oil imports. Now we're importing more than ever before. When the world runs out of oil, of course, the situation will be different ... the world won't be able to "import" oil, as we've done.

PLOWBOY: OK. What about world oil production? When do the "experts" say that world oil production will peak?

BROWN: Last October, I shared a ride to the airport with the head of long-term planning for Gulf Oil. And I asked this man when-for corporate planning purposes-he saw world oil production reaching its peak. He told me he thought it would peak about 1989 ... eleven years from now.

Eleven years. Think of it! Some of the more durable cars?Volvos, Volkswagens, and so on-have an average life expectancy of about 14 years. That means that millions of automobiles being purchased this year will still be on the road when the oil wells begin to go dry in a major way. I don't think we've yet begun to translate that reality into day-today decisions. If we had, we'd probably think twice about buying a new car ... and seriously consider getting a bicycle or moped instead.

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