Lester R. Brown: Author, Ecologist and Economist

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In looking ahead over the long term, I think I can say with some confidence that the final quarter of this century will not be a simple extrapolation of the third quarter, in the way that the sixties were an extrapolation of the fifties. Whether we like it or not, we're about to undergo a period of rapid, far-reaching, perhaps traumatic change. We'll see changes in lifestyles, land ownership patterns, family size, educational systems, the media, the transport sector, eating habits ... virtually every aspect of our lives will undergo adjustment. Perhaps radical adjustment.

I think the adjustment has already begun. People are driving smaller cars now. In some circles, the bicycle is now a symbol of enlightenment and parents with more than two children are viewed as socially irresponsible. People are back-fitting their homes with wood-burning stoves. Backyard and community gardens are becoming commonplace. People are growing their own tomatoes ... tomatoes that I once would've had to grow for them.

It's interesting, too, to note that per capita meat consumption in this country-which has been climbing for some time may have peaked at some time in the past few years. Meat consumption in the U.S. may actually be on the way down now.

These kinds of changes are bound to continue. They have to. The growth ethic-the "bigger is better" way of doing things?must give way to a new ethic, an ethic of accommodation.

It's no longer a question, you see, of whether or not we'll cut back on oil consumption. When the wells begin to go dry in eleven years, we will reduce our consumption. The question is not, "Will we stop overfishing?" Overfishing, by definition, is not sustainable. We will stop ... either by international convention, or because there are no fish left.

The question-in short-is not, "Will we accommodate human needs and numbers to the planet's finite resources?" We will. The question is, will we make the accommodation in a systematic, orderly fashion or in a chaotic and catastrophic fashion?

PLOWBOY: Which do you think it will be?

BROWN: I'm not sure. It's easy to get discouraged, of course ... but I think it's worthwhile to keep in mind that old Chinese greeting.

PLOWBOY: What's that?

BROWN: "May you live in interesting times."

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