Lester R. Brown: Author, Ecologist and Economist

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Part of the problem is that economists and ecologists don't communicate much with one another. Their conceptual frameworks?their analytical tools-are different. Economists-for instance-think in terms of unlimited linear and exponential growth. Ecologists think in terms of closed cycles: the nitrogen cycle, the carbon cycle, the hydrological cycle, etc. Economists think of specialization as a virtue. Ecologists see specialization as a risk and a danger. At least, that's what evolutionary theory teaches us. The point I'm trying to make is that it's very difficult to achieve communication between the people who study economic systems and the folks who study the biological systems on which the global economy depends .

I was at a conference at Williams College in Massachusetts a few years ago, where leading ecologists and economists had been brought together to discuss problems of environment and development in the Third World. I remember that as I was addressing this congregation on the morning of the second day, I commented on the fact that economists and ecologists are like oil and water. You can mix them all you want, but they won't stay together. Barry Commoner was sitting in the front row, and he said, "But you know, if you put oil and water together under pressure, they'll stay mixed." And I said, "What do you get?'' And he said, "Mayonnaise."

Unfortunately, there's some truth to that. Most efforts to bring economists and ecologists together do not yield anything much more exciting, intellectually, than mayonnaise. And I see this as a major problem in policymaking. I think the world today would be much better off if we had fewer economic advisers in government and more ecologic advisers. It would certainly bring decision-making in closer contact with reality.

PLOWBOY: Let's talk about reality. economic reality. What kind of economic trends do you anticipate for the immediate future? I know that a good many economic writers and investment advisers are predicting a downturn in the economy starting the second half of this year, Do you agree with this assessment? Are things going to get worse before they get better?

BROWN: Things are going to get much worse, I think. I'd prefer to look ahead a couple of years, however-not just a few months-to get a clear contrast with the present.

I think that within the next two years we'll see some very profound changes in our thinking with regard to the economic system, how it functions, how best to measure its progress and performance, etc. I expect we'll begin to seriously re-examine the way we think about growth, how we think about employment, and how well the economic system satisfies human needs ... not just in terms of food, clothing, and shelter, but psychological needs, too. I mean, the present system is not the most satisfying one?spiritually and psychologically?that one can imagine, I don't think.

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