Lester R. Brown: Author, Ecologist and Economist

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The sad truth is, the majority of the world's fisheries are now being over fished. And overfishing?by definition-is not sustainable.

PLOWBOY: It's ironic, isn't it? Ever since the time of Jules Verne, people have thought that the oceans would be the ultimate source of food. "When we run out of possibilities on land," we've told ourselves, "we'll just turn to the oceans."

BROWN: In fact, though, it's working just the other way. As the pressures on the world's oceans have increased, we've been forced to turn to land-based food systems to try to pick up the slack. What it means is that both ocean-based and land-based food systems are now under growing pressure.

PLOWBOY: How are the land-based food systems holding up under this pressure?

BROWN: Not very well, I'm afraid. The problem is, most of the world's good land is already under the plow. And much of that land is deteriorating.

You know, up until 1972?when we suddenly found ourselves sharing food shortages with the Russians?the U.S. was able to respond with food aid any time hunger threatened in any part of the world. In 1966 and '67, for instance, India had two monsoon failures in a row. We responded by shipping one-fifth of our wheat crop to India during those two years. As a result, the massive famine that threatened to overtake India never materialized.

If India had a crop failure this year and we were to begin thinking of shipping a fifth of our wheat crop to India, do you have any idea what would happen to the price of food in the world? Let me tell you, it would skyrocket. And do you know what happens today in Third World countries when the price of food goes up? I can tell you what we've seen in India, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, and the Sahelian-zone countries: a rise in death rates. Whenever the price of wheat goes above $3.00 a bushel now it used to be $1.50 a bushel, in the 1960's?death rates rise in the low-income countries that have poor crops. There may be a lag of six to twelve months, but if the world price of wheat goes up, you'll see the death rate go up in Bangladesh. You can count on it.

All of this is not to say that we can't produce more food in the world today. We can produce quite a bit more food than we're now producing ... but-and here's the catch-it'll cost more. When you begin to produce food on marginal land-which is all that's left-the production costs are higher. It takes more fertilizer, more water, more energy, and so on. So the question is not, "Can we produce more food?" We can. The question is, "How much will it cost, and how does that cost relate to the ability of the poorest people in the world to pay?" If you're already spending 80% of your income on food?as many people in India and Ethiopia are today-and the price doubles, you just can't tighten your belt enough and stay alive.

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